Economics, Applied

GenAI in the Workplace | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, David Deming | Hoover Institution

Steve speaks to Harvard professor David Deming about his recent research on the use of GenAI tools in the workplace and what it means for productivity. David’s evidence suggests that GenAI tools have already boosted U.S. labor productivity, with more gains to come. They also highlight the role of unfettered market-based experimentation in sorting out where GenAI tools work well, and where they don’t. In closing, David explains why he titles his substack newsletter Forked Lightning.
Recorded on February 19, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
David Deming is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Faculty Dean of Kirkland House at Harvard College. He has authored noteworthy and award-winning research on the long-run impacts of schooling, soft skills, social mobility, and many other topics. In 2018, he received the David N. Kershaw Prize for distinguished contributions to the field of public policy and management. In 2022, he received the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to labor economics. In addition to his scholarly research and his substack newsletter, he writes for the New York Times and The Atlantic.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Forked Lightning, David Deming’s substack newsletter
David Deming’s articles in The Atlantic and the New York Times
The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration
The rapid adoption of generative ai
“The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market”
Hybrid corn: An exploration in economics of technological change
Do not go gentle into that good night, poem by Dylan Thomas
Organizational Technology Ladders: Remote Work and Generative AI Adoption” by Gregor Schubert
FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Follow David Deming on X: @ProfDavidDeming

Immigration and the Education of US-Born Children | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, David Figlio, and Paola Sapienza| Hoover Institution

Many parents – indeed, many Americans – worry that immigrant children in the classroom could detract from the quality of schooling received by U.S.-born children. It’s a reasonable concern. Today’s episode considers new evidence on how more vs. less exposure to immigrant students affects the educational performance of U.S.-born children, drawing on rich data for students at public schools in Florida.  
Recorded on January 22, 2025. 
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
David Figlio is the Gordon Fyfe Professor of Economics and Education at the University of Rochester and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He studies school accountability, the link between health and education, social welfare policies, and the academic profession. He collaborates frequently with state and local health and education agencies, and recently led a National Science Foundation-sponsored network to facilitate the use of matched administrative datasets to inform and evaluate education policy. He was elected to the National Academy of Education in 2017.
Paola Sapienza is the J-P Conte Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, where she co-directs the J-P Conte Initiative on Immigration. She is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a research affiliate of the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a fellow of the European Corporate Governance Institute. Her main research focuses on the impact of cultural norms on economic decisions and outcomes. She applies these concepts to financial development, political economy, and education. Her work in education investigates how vertical and horizontal cultural transmission of preferences may affect educational outcomes.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Diversity in schools: Immigrants and the educational performance of US-born students, Review of economic Studies, 2024.
Family disadvantage and the gender gap in behavioral and educational outcomes, American Economc Journal: Applied Economics, 2019.
Long-term orientation and educational performance, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2019.
J-P Conte Initiative on Immigration
 

The Chinese Exclusion Act and U.S. Economic Development | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Nancy Qian | Hoover Institution

Many Chinese nationals migrated to the western United States after 1840 to work in mining, railway construction, manufacturing, and personal services. By 1880, they made up 18 percent of the workforce in the western United States. That led to strong social and political backlash among whites, rooted partly in concerns about jobs and wages. Congress responded with the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which banned the immigration of Chinese and shut the door to naturalization for Chinese already living in the U.S. The conversation in today’s episode focuses on two questions: First, how did the Chinese Exclusion Act affect economic development in the Western United States? Second, how did it affect white workers?
Recorded on January 9, 2024.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Nancy Qian is an empirical economist who studies economic development, political economy and economic history, with attention to the interplay between economics, geogrpahy, demographics, politics and culture. She co-directs the Global Poverty Research Lab at Northwestern University and founded the independent China Econ Lab.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
The Long-run Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act, working paper, September 2024.
Immigrants and the Making of America, Review of Economic Studies, 2020.
FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Nancy Qian on: Project Syndicate
Nancy Qian's website: nancyqian.org

Economic Sanctions on Russia | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, Oleg Itskhoki, and Elina Ribakova | Hoover Institution

Oleg Itskhoki and Elina Ribakova join host Steven Davis to discuss two big questions about economic statecraft: How have economic and financial sanctions on Russia affected its economy and its war-fighting capabilities? More broadly, when are sanctions likely to be effective, ineffective, or downright counterproductive?
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Oleg Itskhoki is a professor of economics at Harvard, a research associate of the NBER, CPER research affiliate, and an associate editor of the American Economic Review. He previously held faculty positions at UCLA and Princeton. Among his other honors, he is a fellow of the Econometric Society and a recipient of the 2022 John Bates Clark Medal.
Elina Ribakova is a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of the International Affairs Program and vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics. Her previous positions include managing director and head of Europe, Middle East and Africa Research at Deutsche Bank and director and chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth for Independent States at Citigroup.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
The Economics of Sanctions: From Theory Into Practice, prepared for the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 2024
Western Companies Are Still Fueling Russia’s War Machine, Financial Times, 23 July 2024.
Russian Economy on War Footing, Centre for Economic Policy Research, May 2024.
Russia’s New Economy May End Up Prolonging its War, Peterson Institute, 24 July 2024.
The Oil Price Cap and Embargo on Russia Are Working Imperfectly, and Defects Must Be Fixed, Peterson Institute, 13 July 2023.
International Sanctions and Limits of Lerner Symmetry, AEA Papers & Proceedings, May 2023.
The U.S. Technology Fueling Russia’s War in Ukraine: How and Why, Congressional Testimony, 24 February 2024.
Sanctions and the Exchange Rate, 18 February 2023.
FOLLOW OUR GUESTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Oleg Itskhoki on X: x.com/itskhoki?lang=en
Elina Ribakova on X: x.com/elinaribakova
Elina Ribakova on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/eribakova/

New Insights on Remote Work | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Nicholas Bloom | Hoover Institution

Hoover Senior Fellow Steven Davis and Stanford Economics Professor Nick Bloom review insights from the latest research on remote work, drawing on a recent conference at Stanford University. Steve and Nick discuss Return-to-Office mandates (RTOs) and their impact on company performance, and long-distance CEOs and why companies hire them. They also explore how remote work facilitated a boom in business start-ups, recent employment gains among people with disabilities, the high value of flexible working arrangements for parents, hard times for burglars, good times for golf, and more.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Nicholas (Nick) Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University. His research focuses on working from home, management practices, and uncertainty. He previously worked at the Treasury of the United Kingdom, McKinsey & Company, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).. He has a BA from Cambridge, an MPhil from Oxford, and a PhD from University College London.
He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a recipient of the Guggenheim and Sloan Fellowships, the Frisch Medal, and a National Science Foundation Career Award. In 2022, he was named among the “Bloomberg 50” people and ideas that defined global business for his insights on working from home.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is an economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Hoover Institution Conference on The Implications of Remote Work
Conference Coverage 
Two Beers, A Pandemic, and a Workplace Revolution
The Evolution of Work from Home
Hybrid Working from Home Improves Retention without Damaging Performance
WFHresearch.com
Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes
WFH Map Project
FOLLOW OUR SPEAKER ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Nick Bloom on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/nick-bloom-86b79510b/
Nick Bloom on X: x.com/I_Am_NickBloom

Recent U.S. Immigration: How Big? Who? What Impact? | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, Wendy Edelberg and Madeline Zavodny | Hoover Institution

Host Steven Davis engages Wendy Edelberg and Madeline Zavodny to discuss the recent wave of U.S. immigration and some of its implications. They discuss the surge in immigration since 2021, the extent to which it reflects unlawful entry, its impact on employment growth, its fiscal consequences, and the failure of U.S. statistical authorities to accurately measure the scale of the surge in real time. They also provide historical context by comparing recent immigration waves from Latin America to past influxes from Europe and Asia. Lastly, the guests discuss potential policy changes to raise the economic benefits of immigration and address fiscal impacts on local governments.
For more episodes about immigration: 
The Political Reaction to Immigration
Immigrants and Innovation in the United States
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Wendy Edelberg is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, where she directs the Hamilton Project. Previously, she served as Principal Chief Economist at the Congressional Budget Office and executive director of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. She worked for the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during two administrations. She co-chairs the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Climate and Macroeconomics Roundtable and is a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance. She earned her Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago.
Madeline Zavodny is the Donna L. Gibbs and First Coast Systems Professor of Economics at UNF. She is also a Research Fellow at the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Fellow at the Global Labor Organization, and Adjunct Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Her research focuses on economic issues related to immigration, including Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization (AEI Press, 2010) and The Economics of Immigration (Routledge, 2015; 2nd ed. 2021). Before joining UNF she was a professor of economics at Agnes Scott College and Occidental College and an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She earned her Ph.D. in Economics from MIT.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists and a consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
RELATED RESOURCES:
New Immigration Estimates Help Make Sense of the Pace of Employment 
Waiting to work: employment among dependent spouses of H-1B visa holders in the U.S. 
Immigrants and Their Effects on Labor Market Outcomes of Natives
Unprecedented U.S. Immigration Surge Boosts Job Growth, Output
Public Education for Immigrant Students: Understanding Plyer v. Doe
The Economics of Immigration
FOLLOW OUR SPEAKERS ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Wendy Edelberg: x.com/WendyEdelberg
Madeline Zavodny: x.com/madelinezavodny

Markets for the People | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Glenn Hubbard | Hoover Institution

Host Steven Davis sits down with guest Glenn Hubbard, former dean of Columbia Business School and chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush. They critique industrial policy as practiced under Presidents Trump and Biden and contrast that practice to the insights of Adam Smith, Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek. They also sketch some elements of an economically sound industrial policy. Lastly, they turn to Hubbard’s vision of how to harness "Markets for the People” to advance prosperity for all Americans, while respecting individual liberties. Tune in for a thought-provoking take on the past, present and future of economic policy in the United States.

Immigrants and Innovation in the United States | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Rebecca Diamond | Hoover Institution

Immigrants directly account for one-quarter of the economic value generated by U.S. patents. They account for more than one-third of that value after factoring in the collaboration benefits that immigrant inventors bring to native American inventors. Immigrant inventors also play a major role in the two-way flow of scientific and technical knowledge between the United States and other countries. Choking off the flow of immigrant inventors would hamstring the American innovation enterprise and slow the development and diffusion of scientific knowledge.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Rebecca Diamond is The Class of 1988 Professor of Economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business where she teaches Data and Decisions. Her current research studies the causes and consequence of diverging economic growth across U.S. cities and its effects on inequality. She is an applied micro economist and founder and director of the Cities, Housing, and Society Lab. Rebecca was a postdoctoral fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research from 2013 to 2014. She received her PhD in economics from Harvard University in 2013 and her BS in physics and economics and mathematics from Yale University in 2007. 
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is ann economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business., serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States
Rebecca Diamond Website

Coffee Shops and Business Formation | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Jorge Guzman | Hoover Institution

Steven Davis interviews Professor Jorge Guzman about the effects of coffee shops on business startups. Starbucks and other sit-down coffee shops offer social spaces where people can converse, exchange ideas, and build trust. In his recent research, Guzman investigates whether and when this networking aspect of coffee shops leads to more business formation in the local neighborhood. Tune in for an assessment of his evidence and discussion of its implications for urban planning and how to strengthen local communities.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Dr. Jorge Guzman is an associate professor in the Management Division at Columbia University Business School. He received his PhD from the Sloan School of Management at MIT, and was previously a postdoc at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a lecturer at MIT Sloan.  His research focuses on entrepreneurship policy, regional entrepreneurship, and entrepreneurial strategy.  He was previously involved in the Boston startup ecosystem. He’s also served as an advisor to numerous startups and to government agencies on how to foster entrepreneurship.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is ann economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business., serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Third Places and Neighborhood Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Starbucks Cafés
Jorge Guzman Website
 

Zero-Sum Thinking: Roots and Policy Implications | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Sandra Sequeira | Hoover Institution

Sandra Sequeira joins host Steven Davis for a discussion of zero-sum thinking, the idea that one group’s gain is another group’s loss. They draw on Sandra’s research to delve into several questions: How prevalent is zero-sum thinking? What are its roots? How does it shape policy preferences? How does zero-sum thinking relate to the partisan divide?