Economics, Applied

The Great Trade Policy Hack | Steven Davis, Richard Baldwin | Hoover Institution

Richard Baldwin joins the podcast to speak with Steve about Trumpian Trade Policy, its underlying political logic, its lack of economic coherence, and its consequences for the American and global economies. They also discuss economic and political forces that led to the current protectionist moment in US trade policy, and whether it will endure. Finally, they outline four scenarios for the future international trading system and what it means for US economic fortunes and geopolitical influence.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Richard Baldwin is Professor of International Economics at IMD Business School and Editor-in-Chief of VoxEU, an innovative online platform that publishes short, accessible articles grounded in recent research in economics and political economy. Previously, he held faculty appointments at the Geneva Graduate Institute and Columbia Business School. He also served as Senior Staff Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush. 
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED SOURCES
The Great Trade Hack: How Trump’s Trade War Fails and the World Moves On by Richard Baldwin, 2025
The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work by Richard Baldwin, 2019
“Destructive Trade Policy” by Steven Davis, April 2025
Trends in the Distribution of Household Income from 1979 to 2021, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, September 2024
"Dollar Dominance: A Conversation with Ken Rogoff", Economics Applied podcast, 11 June 2025 
VoxEU columns
At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House by H.R. McMaster, 2024

Dollar Dominance | Steven Davis, Kenneth Rogoff | Hoover Institution

Steven Davis speaks with Kenneth Rogoff about the dominant role of the US Dollar in the international monetary and financial system, drawing on Ken’s new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem. They review how the Dollar became pre-eminent, the benefits and costs, the relationship to U.S. monetary policy, and the forces that could undermine Dollar Dominance. These include geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, the U.S. fiscal outlook, and threats to central bank independence.  
Recorded on June 2, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Kenneth Rogoff is a Professor of International Economics at Harvard, former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, chess grandmaster, and author of many influential works, including his highly celebrated book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED SOURCES
Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead by Kenneth Rogoff, 2025
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, 2009
Foundations of International Macroeconomics by Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, 1996

Reducing Gun Violence in America | Steven Davis, Jens Ludwig | Hoover Institution

Steven Davis chats again with Jens Ludwig about his new book on gun deaths in America. The conversation focuses on low-cost policy solutions that can reduce gun deaths without remaking American society. The solutions include pocket parks, predictive policing, and programs that help people think about behavior in stressful situations.
Recorded on April 23, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy. He is also the Pritzker Director of the University’s Crime Lab and codirector of the NBER’s working group on the economics of crime. His latest book, just out from the University of Chicago Press, is titled Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED SOURCES
Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence by Jens Ludwig, 2025.
Jens Ludwig, personal website
Crime Lab, University of Chicago
Economics of Crime, NBER working group

Understanding Gun Violence in America | Steven Davis, Jens Ludwig | Hoover Institution

Steve Davis speaks to Jens Ludwig about his deeply-researched new book on gun deaths in America. They discuss why America has so many gun deaths, how traditional narratives fail to explain most gun violence, and why past policies failed to reduce the deadly toll. Ludwig also advances a fuller explanation for gun violence, grounded in evidence and behavioral insights.
Recorded on April 23, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy. He is also the Pritzker Director of the University’s Crime Lab and codirector of the NBER’s working group on the economics of crime. His latest book, just out from the University of Chicago Press, is titled Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED SOURCES:
Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence by Jens Ludwig, 2025
Jens Ludwig, personal website
Crime Lab, University of Chicago
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
The Death and Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs
Economics of Crime, NBER working group
“Does Nothing Stop a Bullet Like a Job? The Effects of Income on Crime,” Annual Review of Criminology, 2025

Trade Policy Rupture | Steven Davis, Chad Bown, Doug Irwin | Hoover Institution

Steve queries Chad Bown and Doug Irwin about the rupture in U.S. trade policy under Trump 2.0, the economic consequences, and what it would take to restore confidence in the United States as a reliable trade partner.
Recorded on April 16, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Chad Bown is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, former Chief Economist for the U.S. State Department and the host of  Trade Talks, a podcast about international trade and trade policy.
Douglas Irwin is Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, and author of several books on trade and trade policy, including Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy and Free Trade Under Fire.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED SOURCES:
Trade Talks, a podcast with Chad P. Bown
Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy by Douglas A. Irwin, 2017.
Free Trade Under Fire, by Douglas A. Irwin 2020.
Trump’s Trade War Timeline 2.0: An Up-to-Date Guide by Chad P. Bown.
The Incoherent Case for Tariffs. Trump’s Fixation on Economic Coercion Will Subvert His Economic Goals by Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin, Foreign Affairs, 11 March 2025.
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty by Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2016.
FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON THEIR PLATFORMS:
Chad Bown's website
Chad Bown on X: @ChadBown
Douglas Irwin’s website 
Douglas Irwin on X: @D_A_Irwin

The 1920s Immigration Clampdown | Steven Davis, Ran Abramitzky | Hoover Institution

In the 1920s, the US government sharply restricted immigration inflows from countries in Eastern and Southern Europe. At the time, most immigrants from these countries had modest skills. Steve speaks to Stanford economist Ran Abramitzky about these immigration cutbacks, their effects on the earnings of US-born workers, and how the economy adapted.
Recorded on April 2, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Ran Abramitzky is the Stanford Federal Credit Union Professor of Economics, Senior Associate Dean of the Social Sciences at Stanford University, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. His studies economic history, with a focus on immigration and income inequality.  His recent book with Leah Boustan, Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success (PublicAffairs 2022), was listed on The New Yorker's Best Books of 2022, Forbes' Best Business Books of 2022, and Behavioral Scientist's Notable Books of 2022.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.

Do Government Statistics Yield Better Business Outcomes? | Steven Davis, Feng Chi | Hoover Institution

Steve speaks to Feng Chi about her research on the commercial value of the Decennial Census of Population and Housing. Using a creative empirical approach, Feng offers evidence that fresher government statistics yield better business outcomes and more value for consumers. Steve and Feng also discuss how government statistics improve the value of statistics generated in the private sector. 
Recorded on March 19, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Feng Chi, a PhD candidate at Cornell University, will join the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign as an Assistant Professor of Economics in Fall 2025. She holds a Master of Science degree in Applied Economics and Management from Cornell University and a B.A. in Finance from Renmin University. Her research interests are in information economics, fintech, and entrepreneurship.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.

American Lives | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, Stelios Michalopoulos | Hoover Institution

In the 1930s, as part of the New Deal, the U.S. government hired unemployed writers to interview older Americans and record their life stories. Today’s guest examines those stories to investigate the sources of meaning, happiness, and hardship in the lives of everyday Americans. One theme to emerge is the central role of work as a source of meaning for many people. Another key theme is that men and women differ in how they find meaning in their lives and in the sources of hardship. Join Steve as he speaks with Brown University Professor Stelios Michalopoulos.
Recorded on February 27, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Stelios Michalopoulos is the Eastman Professor of Political Economy in the Department of Economics at Brown University. An imaginative scholar, he works at the intersection of political economy and culture. He has conducted research on folklore, movies, the origins of ethnic diversity, the effects of colonial and pre-colonial institutions on economic development in Africa, and much more. He serves on the editorial boards of the World Bank Economic Review, Journal of Economic Growth, Journal of Comparative Economics, and Journal of the European Economic Association.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.

GenAI in the Workplace | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, David Deming | Hoover Institution

Steve speaks to Harvard professor David Deming about his recent research on the use of GenAI tools in the workplace and what it means for productivity. David’s evidence suggests that GenAI tools have already boosted U.S. labor productivity, with more gains to come. They also highlight the role of unfettered market-based experimentation in sorting out where GenAI tools work well, and where they don’t. In closing, David explains why he titles his substack newsletter Forked Lightning.
Recorded on February 19, 2025.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
David Deming is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Faculty Dean of Kirkland House at Harvard College. He has authored noteworthy and award-winning research on the long-run impacts of schooling, soft skills, social mobility, and many other topics. In 2018, he received the David N. Kershaw Prize for distinguished contributions to the field of public policy and management. In 2022, he received the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions to labor economics. In addition to his scholarly research and his substack newsletter, he writes for the New York Times and The Atlantic.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Forked Lightning, David Deming’s substack newsletter
David Deming’s articles in The Atlantic and the New York Times
The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration
The rapid adoption of generative ai
“The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market”
Hybrid corn: An exploration in economics of technological change
Do not go gentle into that good night, poem by Dylan Thomas
Organizational Technology Ladders: Remote Work and Generative AI Adoption” by Gregor Schubert
FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA:
Follow David Deming on X: @ProfDavidDeming

Immigration and the Education of US-Born Children | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis, David Figlio, and Paola Sapienza| Hoover Institution

Many parents – indeed, many Americans – worry that immigrant children in the classroom could detract from the quality of schooling received by U.S.-born children. It’s a reasonable concern. Today’s episode considers new evidence on how more vs. less exposure to immigrant students affects the educational performance of U.S.-born children, drawing on rich data for students at public schools in Florida.  
Recorded on January 22, 2025. 
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
David Figlio is the Gordon Fyfe Professor of Economics and Education at the University of Rochester and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He studies school accountability, the link between health and education, social welfare policies, and the academic profession. He collaborates frequently with state and local health and education agencies, and recently led a National Science Foundation-sponsored network to facilitate the use of matched administrative datasets to inform and evaluate education policy. He was elected to the National Academy of Education in 2017.
Paola Sapienza is the J-P Conte Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, where she co-directs the J-P Conte Initiative on Immigration. She is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a research affiliate of the Center for Economic Policy Research, and a fellow of the European Corporate Governance Institute. Her main research focuses on the impact of cultural norms on economic decisions and outcomes. She applies these concepts to financial development, political economy, and education. Her work in education investigates how vertical and horizontal cultural transmission of preferences may affect educational outcomes.
Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is a research associate of the NBER, IZA research fellow, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He also co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Diversity in schools: Immigrants and the educational performance of US-born students, Review of economic Studies, 2024.
Family disadvantage and the gender gap in behavioral and educational outcomes, American Economc Journal: Applied Economics, 2019.
Long-term orientation and educational performance, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2019.
J-P Conte Initiative on Immigration