Economics, Applied

Can We Predict Police Misconduct? | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Jens Ludwig | Hoover Institution

Steven Davis speaks to Jens Ludwig about his recent work on "Predicting Police Misconduct.” They delve into whether we can predict which police officers are most at risk of serious misconduct. The potential benefits of accurate prediction are large, but it also challenging to develop and implement robust prediction models.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Jens Ludwig is the Edwin A. and Betty L. Bergman Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, Pritzker Director of the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab, codirector of the Education Lab, and codirector of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s working group on the economics of crime. His research is published in top scientific journals across various disciplines, including the American Economic Review and New England Journal of Medicine.
Jens co-founded the Crime Lab and the Education Lab, which help government agencies use insights from behavioral science and data science to address real-world problems. Examples include working with the Chicago Police Department to implement data-driven management changes to reduce gun violence, and partnership with the Mayor’s Office in New York City to help build and implement a new pretrial risk tool as part of the city’s goal to close Riker’s Island.
Ludwig holds a BA in economics from Rutgers and an MA and PhD from Duke University. He was a public policy professor at Georgetown University and is on the editorial board of the American Economic Review. In 2012, he was elected vice president of APPAM and received the David N. Kershaw Prize in 2006. He was elected to the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies of Science in 2012.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
The Jason Van Dyke Case
Predicting Police Misconduct
Jens Ludwig profile
 

The Political Reaction to Immigration | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Marco Tabellini | Hoover Institution

Host Steven Davis is joined by Marco Tabellini from Harvard Business School to explore the political reactions to immigration. They discuss whether economic or cultural concerns drive backlash, and how these reactions influence policy outcomes. The conversation delves into historical and contemporary issues, providing insights into the complex economic, social, and political effects of immigration. The episode closes with a tribute to the late Alberto Alesina, highlighting his contributions to the field of political economy and his lasting influence on students and colleagues.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Marco Tabellini is assistant professor in the Business, Government, and the International Economy unit at the Harvard Business School, and is affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), and at the IZA Institute for Labor Economics.
Professor Tabellini studies the political and economic effects of immigration. His research seeks to understand what factors facilitate or hinder immigrant assimilation and how ethnic groups interact and affect society. Some of his research considers the early twentieth century US experience, characterized by the massive inflow of Europeans and the first major migration of African Americans from the rural South to the urban North. He has studied the effects of the second great migration of African Americans between 1940 and 1970, investigating how this episode contributed to the development of the Civil Rights movement. Professor Tabellini earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018, and spent the academic year 2018-2019 as a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard Business School before joining the faculty. He also holds a B.S. and M.S. in Economics and Social Sciences from Bocconi University.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
ABOUT THE SERIES:
Each episode of the video podcast series Economics, Applied features senior fellow Steven Davis in conversation with leaders and researchers about economic developments and their ramifications. The goal is to bring evidence and economic reasoning to the table, drawing lessons for individuals, organizations, and society. The podcast also aims to showcase the value of individual initiative, markets, the rule of law, and sound policy in fostering prosperity and security.
For more information, visit https://www.hoover.org/podcasts/economics-applied.
RELATED RESOURCES:
• The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20221643
• Immigration in American History: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20151189
• The Long-term Effects of Immigration on Attitudes and Political Preferences: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28448/w28448.pdf
The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University. © 2024 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.

Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Kathryn Dominguez | Hoover Institution

Central banks responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with large-scale purchases of bonds, commercial paper, and other financial assets. In some cases, central banks announced “open-ended” programs, with no explicit limits on the scale or duration of asset purchases. Did these open-ended interventions have larger effects on interest rates? On exchange rates? Is this type of purposeful policy vagueness useful in the conduct of monetary policy? If so, why? And when? Join Steven Davis and guest Kathryn Dominguez as they discuss these issues and consider the wisdom of “open-endedness” in central bank policy pronouncements.

Two Parents or One? What It Means for Children and Society | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis and Melissa Kearney | Hoover Institution

It’s easier for two parents to provide the time, attention, love, and financial resources that help children thrive and lead successful lives than it is for a single parent. Yet the share of American children who live with two parents has plummeted in recent decades. The decline is especially steep outside of the college-educated class. Why are so many parents now raising children outside of marriage? What are the consequences for children and society? How do the benefits of two parents play out across racial and ethnic groups? Do the effects differ between boys and girls? What, if anything, can we do so that more children reap the benefits of two-parent households? Tune in, as Melissa Kearney joins Steven Davis to discuss The Two-Parent Privilege, her highly insightful book on these issues.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS:
Melissa Kearny is a chaired professor of economics at the University of Maryland, research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, non-resident Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution, and a highly accomplished researcher. She holds a BA in Economics from Princeton University and a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Among many other roles, she serves on the editorial boards of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy and the Journal of Economic Literature, and she is on the board of the Notre Dame Wilson-Sheehan Lab for Economic Opportunities and a scholar affiliate with the MIT Abdul Jameel Poverty Action Lab.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind
Social Poverty: Low-Income Parents and the Struggle for Family and Community Ties
The Trouble with Boys: Social Influences and the Gender Gap in Disruptive Behavior
Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Non-Marital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom
Collateralized  Marriage
Melissa Kerny personal website

Russian Economic History – A Conversation with Sergei Guriev | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Wednesday, April 24, 2024 
“Russia is the home of not one, but two lost empires: The Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.” So writes our guest, Sergei Guriev, in a sweeping survey of recent research on Russian Economic History. Join Sergei and our host, Steven Davis, for a spirited conversation on Russian economic developments in the 19th and 20th centuries, the failures of central planning, and the ongoing reverberations.

The Political Economy of Populism: A Conversation with Elias Papaioannou | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Host Steven Davis and guest Elias Papaioannou discuss the resurgence of populism in Europe and the United States over the past fifteen years. They define populism, identify its economic drivers, and consider how democratic institutions moderate and respond to populist pressures. They also consider the implications for economic performance. They wrap up their conversation with some remarks on the outlook for populism and its impact on policies and democratic institutions in the years ahead.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Elias Papaioannou is a professor of economics at the London Business School and academic director of the LBS Wheeler Institute for Business and Development. He is also the joint managing editor at the Review of Economic Studies, a top scholarly journal in economics. His research tackles big issues in political economy and economic development – including the rise of populism, the role of colonialism in Africa, ethnic differences in economic outcomes, and the relationship between democratization and growth.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, advisor to the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and an elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists. He cofounded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the US Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Previously, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
· Elias’s website
· “The Political Economy of Populism” by Sergei Guriev and Elias Papaioannou, Journal of Economic Literature, 2022.
· “The Enduring Populist Threat” by Sergei Guriev and Elias Papaioannou, Project Syndicate Long Read, March 19, 2021.
· “The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism” by Algan Yann, Sergei Guriev, Elias Papaioannou and Evgenia Passari, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016.
· “Populist Leaders and the Economy” by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch, American Economic Review, 2023. (ungated version)
“Macroeconomic Populism” by Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards, Journal of Development Economics, 1990.
 

US Labor Markets since March 2020: A Conversation with Ayşegül Şahin | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Host Steven Davis and guest Ayşegül Şahin explore the extraordinary behavior of US labor markets since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. They explain how the global crisis spurred remote work, instigated the "great resignation," drove job vacancy rates to all-time highs, restrained overall wage growth, and altered the structure of wages. Steve and Ayşegül also discuss how the recession and recovery since March 2020 really was different than earlier cyclical episodes, making it harder for the Fed and other policymakers to assess the state of the labor market. They also remark on how the rise of remote work presents new challenges and options for employers and workers, including the opportunity to expand labor-force participation among women with young children and people with physical impairments. It’s an episode packed with insights for economists, journalists, policymakers, and anyone curious about the post-pandemic job market.

The Power of Proximity: A Conversation with Emma Harrington | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Steven Davis speaks with Emma Harrington about her recent study on the power of proximity in facilitating mentoring, employee feedback, and learning on the job. According to the study, software engineers give more written feedback to team members when working in the same building, as compared to working in nearby buildings or from home. Physical proximity has stronger effects on the feedback given and received by women, and it is especially important in facilitating feedback from senior to junior employees.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Emma Harrington is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia and affiliate of JPAL-North America. She received her PhD in Economics from Harvard in 2021. She held a postdoc position in the Industrial Relations Section at Princeton University in 2021-2022 and was assistant professor at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business in 2022-23. Her research focuses on labor market issues, personnel economics, and law and economics.   
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is an economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Emma's website 
“The Power of Proximity to Coworkers: Training for Tomorrow or Productivity Today?” by Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington and Amanda Palais 

Remote Work, Real Estate Prices, and Cities: A Conversation with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh joins Steven Davis to explain how the remote work revolution affects urban property values, municipal tax revenues, and the outlook for cities. Stijn and Steve also consider how policymakers can respond to the challenges facing cities. In this regard, they discuss the conversion of vacant commercial buildings to new housing units, the need for regulatory reforms that lower construction costs, subsidies to real estate development, and the importance of safe, low-crime urban environments.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh is the Earle W. Kazis and Benjamin Schore Professor of Real Estate and Professor of Finance at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh obtained his B.A. in Economics at Belgium’s Ghent University in 1998 and later earned three advanced degrees at Stanford University (M.Sc. in Financial Mathematics, M.A. in Economics, and Ph.D. in Economics). He is a former editor at The Review of Financial Studies and past president of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. In 2015, Stijn received the Bérnácer Prize for research on how housing-market shocks affect the broader economy and the prices of financial assets. 
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is an economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.
RELATED RESOURCES:
Stijn’s website 
“The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment: 2023 AREUEA Presidential Address” 
“Converting brown offices to green apartments”

How Flexible Jobs Can Help Women: A Conversation with Suhani Jalota | Economics, Applied | Steven Davis | Hoover Institution

Suhani Jalota joins Steve to discuss her study of how digital jobs can draw women into paid work in countries like India. The jobs, performed on smartphones, produce data that help train and evaluate AI models. Several job design features help overcome practical barriers to work and sidestep social norms that inhibit work for pay by married women. Jalota tells Steve how this idea can work in practice, how outcomes for women in these jobs can be evaluated, the broader effects of drawing women into this type of work, and what is next on her research agenda.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Suhani Jalota is a PhD candidate in Health Economics at the Stanford School of Medicine, and a Knight Hennessy Scholar.  She holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Global Health from Duke University (2016).  She is also the founder and director of a women's health organization, the Myna Mahila Foundation, based in Mumbai, India.  She has been working in urban slum areas and rural communities researching and designing strategies on projects including the health of adolescent girls, as well as public policies concerning water, sanitation, and social protection.  Her economics honors thesis topic looks at how slum redevelopment has negatively affected child health outcomes, even as rapid urbanization calls for policies that keep people healthy and safe.  She wants to further explore national health systems, their design, as well as challenges and outcomes, especially from a developing country context.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is an economic adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He co-founded the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore. Before joining Hoover, Davis was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, serving as both distinguished service professor and deputy dean of the faculty.